Here is one interesting seat (Brisbane) that shows clearly how Preferential Voting (Ranked Choice or Instant Runoff) works in a real life example.
CANDIDATE (PARTY) VOTES PERCENT
EVANS, Trevor (MP) (Liberal National Party of Queensland) 33,400 38.35
JARRETT, Madonna (Australian Labor Party) 24,061 27.63
BATES, Stephen (Queensland Greens) 23,389 26.86
HOLD, Trevor (Pauline Hanson's One Nation) 1,780 2.04
KNUDSON, Justin (United Australia Party) 1,593 1.83
KENNEDY, Tiana (Animal Justice Party) 1,530 1.76
BULL, Anthony (Liberal Democrats) 1,333 1.53
Formal 87,086 98.14%
Informal 1,647 1.86%
Total 88,733 100.00%
The count is about 72% completed. And because the ALP (Jarrett) and Greens (Bates) more-or-less swap all preferences, one of these two must win the seat, and the sitting member (Evans) will lose. So the race is between the ALP and the Greens to NOT come third - you have to finish in the top two to get the preference flow you need. If you finish third you are eliminated (after all the minor parties are distributed), and your second preferences are then distributed (Greens to ALP, or vice versa, we'll see).
The votes of the (mostly) conservative minor parties will flow to the Liberal (Evans), but they won't help him anywhere near enough to prevent a decisive win by either the ALP or Greens.
Here is a good overview of how Australian elections work:
https://theconversation.com/how-does-australias-voting-system-work-177737
Here is one interesting seat (Brisbane) that shows clearly how Preferential Voting (Ranked Choice or Instant Runoff) works in a real life example.
CANDIDATE (PARTY) VOTES PERCENT
EVANS, Trevor (MP) (Liberal National Party of Queensland) 33,400 38.35
JARRETT, Madonna (Australian Labor Party) 24,061 27.63
BATES, Stephen (Queensland Greens) 23,389 26.86
HOLD, Trevor (Pauline Hanson's One Nation) 1,780 2.04
KNUDSON, Justin (United Australia Party) 1,593 1.83
KENNEDY, Tiana (Animal Justice Party) 1,530 1.76
BULL, Anthony (Liberal Democrats) 1,333 1.53
Formal 87,086 98.14%
Informal 1,647 1.86%
Total 88,733 100.00%
The count is about 72% completed. And because the ALP (Jarrett) and Greens (Bates) more-or-less swap all preferences, one of these two must win the seat, and the sitting member (Evans) will lose. So the race is between the ALP and the Greens to NOT come third - you have to finish in the top two to get the preference flow you need. If you finish third you are eliminated (after all the minor parties are distributed), and your second preferences are then distributed (Greens to ALP, or vice versa, we'll see).
The votes of the (mostly) conservative minor parties will flow to the Liberal (Evans), but they won't help him anywhere near enough to prevent a decisive win by either the ALP or Greens.